Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling
The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997
The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010
Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings
My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts.
The Ipsos-MORI ratings have been used because these have been recorded at regular intervals since 1977.
The proposition works for the only other LOTO to become PM since this polling started – Mrs. Thatcher. In the 1979 polls before the election she led the PM, James Callaghan, in every single survey.
The message for today is that Corbyn needs to improve sharply if he’s to have a chance.