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Month: January 2019

The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

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Last year I called Jeremy Corbyn the new Maggie.  I don’t suppose that will be appearing on the side of a Labour election battle bus any time soon. A pity.  The Twitterstorm that would have followed would have been such fun. So let’s see if I can be even more provoking this year. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Derek Hatton have a surprising amount in common: their Catholicism (Jacob modelling himself on Waugh’s Bridey, Derek coming from the cradle Irish Catholic strand, to…

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Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is already attracting endorsements

Kamala Harris makes strong start to her WH2020 campaign and is already attracting endorsements

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My 66/1 tip from January 2017 now the clear frontrunner Even though we are a year off the first WH2020 primaries the former Attorney General for California and now Senator, Kamala Harris, is top slot in the betting and in pole position for the Democratic party nomination. Her campaign was launched a week last Monday and on Sunday a crowd estimated at 20k turned up in her home city of Oakland for her first campaign rally. Last night she appeared…

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The HealthSec announces that medicines will be prioritised over food in the event of no deal

The HealthSec announces that medicines will be prioritised over food in the event of no deal

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No-deal Brexit plans prioritise medicines over food, MPs told https://t.co/1ZNiMb5KqX — Guardian politics (@GdnPolitics) January 28, 2019 Putting the pressure on ahead of tomorrow’s votes? Maybe this is all about getting MPs to face up to what no deal really means but the statement by Health Sec Hancock really brings home the potential crisis. That a choice might have to be made between food and medicines is decidedly scary. This is from the Guardian report of how HealthSec Hancock responded…

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“TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market

“TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market

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This Betfair exchange market is one of of my current favourites because it combines what is overwhelmingly the big UK political issue for many years, Brexit, with the future of TMay. On the face of it the UK actually leaving the EU appears a better bet to happen first than TMay stepping aside. For before Christmas she got immunity for a year after surviving the confidence vote amongst CON MPs. This compares with the UK’s EU exit date being enshrined…

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With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

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Betdata.io Ahead of the crunch parliamentary week punters don’t think the March 29 exit will happen One of the good things about betting trend charts is that they are a way of seeing how opinions, at least of those who ready to risk money betting on politics, are developing over time. We are today exactly 60 days before the Article 50 deadline expires when the UK is due to leave the EU. Yet it is still far from clear whether…

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Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

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EXCLUSIVE Remain ministers said PM must commit to securing Brexit deal within 2 weeks if she is to avoid resignations over no deal during conference call TONIGHT A dozen ministers on call including Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, David Gauke & Caroline Nokes https://t.co/J7JP22x1LO — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 27, 2019 The pressure’s now coming from those who backed remain The Telegraph is reporting details of at telephone conference call earlier this evening by about a dozen ministers who are pro-European….

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Sherrod Brown, victor in Ohio last November, looks increasingly like a good bet for WH2020

Sherrod Brown, victor in Ohio last November, looks increasingly like a good bet for WH2020

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https://youtu.be/dNiVkG6Kh88?t=156 I’ve had quite a few long shot bets on the next White House Race but the one I am becoming increasingly confident about is Sherrod Brown Who last November held his Ohio senate seat by a margin of 6%. What makes this striking is that at WH2016 Trump took the state with a margin of 8 points. If anyone can win the rust belt back for the Democrats then it’s Brown. So far he’s not formally put his hat…

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Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

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I’m going to go all Godwin on you. Sorry. When people talk about the causes of World War Two, they often mention how Hitler was emboldened by his early success remilitarising the Rhineland without any real consequence, showing that the Treaty of Versailles was violable. This was not, however, the first occasion on which the settlement of the First World War was set aside by the losers. At 100 years’ distance, Germany was the loser of the First World War…

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