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Month: February 2019

If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

The overnight YouGov poll giving the Conservatives an 11% lead was the worst for LAB since the 2017 general election. I like to look at polls in context which is why above there there is the full Wikipedia list of all GB voting intention polls this year. The big picture is that LAB is on the decline and the Tories are moving up a bit. Although you’ve got a range of Conservative leads between 4% and 11% surveys it’s the…

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Tom Watson plans a new LAB MPs grouping and there’s little Milne/McCluskey/Corbyn can do about it

Tom Watson plans a new LAB MPs grouping and there’s little Milne/McCluskey/Corbyn can do about it

He’s LAB’s deputy with his own separate mandate It is very hard to think of any other organisation where a deputy can operate in the manner that Tom Watson is doing at the moment. His response to the defection of nine MPs has been very much to sympathize recognising the culture within the party that led to their decisions. He’s also forwarded to the leadership 50 cases of anti-semitism which he wants investigating. You wonder what Seamus Milne, Len McCluskey,…

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The past three months have been tough for both main leaders but the polling suggests that Corbyn has been hit the most

The past three months have been tough for both main leaders but the polling suggests that Corbyn has been hit the most

For all the different polling questions being asked at the moment I prefer tracker questions which use the same format in the same way in poll after poll to get an historical picture of how things are developing. The best, as I repeatedly argue, are leader ratings which rarely get the attention they deserve often being ignored completely by the media outlets that commission them. Unlike voting intention surveys which seek to establish what respondents might or might not do…

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It appears Blair slayer Tom Watson has his sights on Jeremy Corbyn

It appears Blair slayer Tom Watson has his sights on Jeremy Corbyn

Tom Watson reveals he has send Jeremy Corbyn a dossier of 50 allegations of anti-Semitism that he feels have not been dealt with by Labour. Big move. He's putting this directly on Jeremy Corbyn's doorstep. What will Corbyn do? — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) February 24, 2019 Tom Watson just delivered Corbyn a series of ultimatums. a ) Deal with AS personally. b) Deal with these specific 50 cases. c) Let me start to develop policy independently of you. d) Back…

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Birds of a Feather

Birds of a Feather

Many Tories seem to think that, however bad their problems, they are as nothing compared to the complaints about bullying and anti-Semitism so widely canvassed by ex-Labour MPs this week. They have yet to be accused of racism by tearful MPs, the polls appear to put them in a small lead and once Brexit is sorted they can get back to doing what they do best, or so the hope appears to be. (Though whether a party which claims to have…

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New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…

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