This looks like the best way to get a 25% return in eight months.
Earlier on this month I wrote a piece about the plans of Tory Leavers to try and oust John Bercow this week just gone, accurately I predicted they wouldn’t have the numbers to oust Speaker Bercow.
In that piece I bemoaned there were no Bercow exit markets but thankfully Paddy Power now have a market on whether Speaker Bercow will leave his job in 2019. For me it is a no brainer to back the 1/4 that he will not leave his job in 2019. It is clear Tory leavers do not have the numbers to oust Bercow which makes backing the 1/4 so attractive. As Mike Smithson has regularly observed the ERG appear to be just piss and wind.
The only way I can see this bet doesn’t win is if Bercow stands down if we get a 2019 general election, but if the Parliamentary re-enactment of the Battle of Verdun via Brexit has not concluded then Bercow may well decide to stay on. What has the greater potential to see Bercow depart in 2019 is if the bullying allegations against him escalate further, but I really cannot see either scenario happening.