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Month: April 2019

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

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Sir Graham Brady says the 1922 Committee will ask Theresa May for “clarity” on when she will step down if she cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament. Declines to say whether this means a specific date. — Ben Kentish LBC (@BenKentish) April 24, 2019 Journos should be more sceptical about ERG briefings I don’t know about you but I’m getting a bit tired of all these headlines about Theresa May on the point of being ousted. This started, it…

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Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain

Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But is he overpriced in the betting? . As can be seen in the chart Joe Biden has moved back a bit in the betting for the Democratic nomination for WH2020 White House Race. His team is making it known that tomorrow he will formally enter the race with a specially prepared video that will be distributed. This launch contrasts sharply with the mass rallies that he key opponents had with all…

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Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

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Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

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The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

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Will the aggregate votes of the Brexit parties exceed those that oppose it? Lots of talk today about the various lists that the parties are putting up for the unexpected euro elections on May 23rd. To remind ourselves in this election voters put a cross by a party name in a particular region and their votes are allocated according to a complex system that seeks to proportionately distribute the numbers of MEPs. But what matters is surely, in the current context,…

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The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

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Down 15-20 on the Tory GE2017 election outcome To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later. Although the polls in the table above are…

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On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

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Those opposed the Brexit party should change the subject to the NHS Last November Donald Trump took a beating in the midterm elections when his opponents, the Democrats, were able to make his threats to undermine what public health system there is in the United States into an issue. This is an approach that will be used at WH2020 for once something has become an an entitlement then it is exceedingly difficult and politically dangerous to take it away. In…

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Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

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Chart betdata.io How the betting moved ahead of the 2016 race We all know the truism from Conservative leadership contests that the person who most likely seems to be the successor never gets it. Michael Heseltine, Michael Portillo and David Davis would no doubt attest to the difficulty of being the long-term favourite I love looking at historical betting charts showing how punters were observing and risking their money on a big political outcome in the past where we have…

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Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

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Sunil looks at the trend and the reasons why This is a two-part series bringing to your attention the decline of the humble Westminster by-election over the last 100 years. In Part 1, I will discuss how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance. Since the 1918 election, when universal…

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