New @IpsosMORI Euros poll completed last night sees LAB trailing LDs
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2019
This is much closer to YouGov than other polls
The pollster, Ipsos-MORI, has a long history of trying to be the publisher of the last poll before an election. It does this by finishing its fieldwork on the Wednesday evening and generally it is published in the London Evening Standard on the Thursday.
With this election when so much is fluid this is good time to get a snapshot. The hope is that it will enable the firm to identify late swings and get the very latest sense of where opinion is moving. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.
What can be seen from the numbers above is that is that the broad picture is fairly similar to YouGov which was until now the only pollster to have the LDs in second place. It is also the only pollster apart from YouGov to have the Tories in single figures.
This new poll also gives a much lower figure for LAB than other firms apart from YouGov. The 15% LAB share here compares with the 25% from Panelbase and 24% from Kantar and Survation.
A key number is that 52% of those planning to vote Conservative in the European elections said they may still change their mind.
There is at least one on the day survey taking place and we might see that later on this evening after the polls have closed.