Bernie soars on Betfair after the poll non-release fiasco

Bernie soars on Betfair after the poll non-release fiasco chart of Betfair market

Those UK based American political obsessives like me who stayed up till 2 in the morning for the release of the the Des Moines Register Iowa poll went to bed disappointed. There was no poll as the previous post sets out.

What happened here we do not know but the fact that the newspaper decided to pull it at the last minute suggests that they and the pollster were aware that what was being complained about might have some foundation.

In the absence of any new information about how people in the state are thinking the reaction of the markets has to be in to invest more betting on Bernie the 78 year-old socialist who is not even Democrat.

As David Herdson lucidly argued yesterday morning here there is no reason at all why Bernie should be tighter than evens in the betting.

What I was looking for in the new poll was an indication if the Klobuchar surge, seen in some other polls was going to be replicated here. I’ll have to wait.

Mike Smithson

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