The New Hampshire polling looks almost solid for Bernie – but then so did Iowa
Given the delays in getting a firm result from Iowa I wonder whether our first clear cut outcome could happen on Tuesday night in New Hampshire. For even when the Iowa party gets all the outstanding data in on Monday then it is far from clear that this will be the end of the matter.
All this is because with caucuses it is the party machines that handles the election and the counting unlike where you have full primaries like in New Hampshire where the state authority runs the election.
People might jeer at the Dems for what happened last week but the Republicans had something that was far worse in 2012. On the caucus evening the Iowa Republicans named Mitt Romney as the winner. This started to unravel and it was a fortnight later that Rick Santorum was declared the official winner. Unfortunately Betfair paid out on Romney and Santorum backers like me had a big struggle getting our winnings.
Meanwhile it looks like Buttigieg and Sanders will be top of the poll in New Hampshire on Tuesday. One factor that might impact on the result is that in this state Republican voters can choose to cast their ballots in the Democratic primary. This might help Mayor Pete.