Who will be Sir Keir Starmer’s successor?
My 25/1 tip as next Labour leader.
It might seem odd, even before a pandemic, to start looking at Sir Keir Starmer’s successor a fortnight after he was elected, in normal circumstances the earliest there might be a vacancy in 2024 and if Starmer takes power at the next general election there might not be a vacancy for a decade or longer so it is possible the next leader of the Labour party isn’t on this list.
Things can rapidly change in markets like this, earlier on this month Richard Burgon was a deputy leader contender and spoken about as as a future leader, now he’s not even listed by Paddy Power in this market when a non MP is. What a fall for that extraordinary political talent that is Richard Burgon, but that’s the subject of a future thread.
For me the bet I’m advising is to take is the 25/1 on the Shadow Mental Health Minister, Rosena Allin-Khan, at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power (she was 33/1 a few days ago) and I hope my reasoning makes sense to you all.
She’s a Doctor and is currently on the front lines dealing with Covid-19, and even before the Covid-19 crisis Doctors have a stellar reputation with the public, as the regular Thursday 8 PM clap has shown. That she’s there on the front line dealing with this crisis will give her a credibility that only a handful of MPs will have and in built popularity that she can use when holding the government to account that someone who is a career politician cannot.
She also has a couple of advantages in her favour in the next Labour leadership, I get the feeling the wider Labour party really wants to elect their first female leader whilst it is possible the Conservative party might be on their third female Prime Minister later on this decade, like David Herdson, I cannot envisage a long premiership for Boris Johnson. That Dr Allin-Khan has BAME heritage might also be an advantage in any future Labour leadership contest.
What she showed in the Deputy Leadership race is that she’s transfer friendly as she increased her vote share by 10% and moved from third place to second place in the final round, by contrast Richard Burgon only increased by 4% which is why he slipped from second place in the first round to third place in the final round. So long as Labour use the flawless alternative vote system to elect their leaders Dr Allin-Khan should do well in Labour leadership contests.
So at 25/1 I think she’s value, I expect in the next reshuffle she’ll be promoted to the full shadow cabinet, but it is possible you might not get a payout for sometime, but with interest rates so low, it might be worth it.
TSE