Ed Davey, the only Lib Dem cabinet minister from the 2010-2015 coalition still to be be an MP, has now edged up to a 65% chance on the Betfair exchange on the election to choose the successor to Jo Swinson who, of course lost her to the SNP at GE2019.
Quite what this is based on is hard to say but Davey, currently joint acting leader, has been getting a bit more media attention than his opponent, Layla Moran. It was Davey’s question at this week’s PMQs that got Johnson to agree a formal enquiry into the handling of the pandemic.
The online hustings have already started and ballot packs go out in the next fortnight.
My reading is that Davey is being helped by the fact that he has been through all this before – just a year ago he slugged it out with Swinson.
On Betfair I’m all green on this market and I rate Layla’s chances as better than the 35% Betfair odds suggest.