Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Could they soon be level?

Even though the polls continue to have Biden with a significant lead over Trump punters remain increasingly convinced that this is a much tighter race than the data might appear.

The latest prices on the Betfair Exchange have Trump moving up to a 45.5% chance and there is still some way to go before the GOP convention closes late on Thursday night US time.

Again the thinking of the Trump backers is dominated by their experience of Brexit and WH2016 and clearly there is an expectation that the President is heading for a convention polling bounce. That might well happen and the question is how large this turns out to be.

It should be noted the Biden received almost no bounce in the polls following his convention last week.

Meanwhile Buzzfeed is reporting that a Republican video showing scenes of rioting in the streets is actually shots of Barcelona.

Mike Smithson

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