Rishi is now a 22% chance while Stamer’s at 28% Since Stamer became LAB leader on April 4th his lead in the next PM betting has been shaved by much more interest in the man who was a junior minister barely 10 months ago, Rishi Sunak. The key factor here, of course, is when will the next general election take place for it is hard to see Starmer having any chance until there has been an election and the Tories…
She’s the Democrat making big set piece attacks on Trump’s big night One of the undoubted weaknesses of the Democrats as we go into the next phase of the White House Race is the age of Joe Biden and that he can often appear to be old. If he won he’d be 78 on Inauguration Day. His apparent frailty has already become a major attack line for the Republicans who don’t just want to retain the White House in November…
We have referred before to this polling series from newbie pollsters Redfield Wilson which asks those sampled to choose between Starmer and Sunak as “Best PM”. The Chancellor has led throughout but as can be seen the gap is nothing like it was and is now at 3%. We have to take into account as well that for whatever reason R&W is just about the most Tory-friendly pollsters carrying out surveys at the moment and has been reporting bigger leads…
So the punters had the LD leadership contest right. In a relatively low turnout election (57% of members) Sir Ed Davey beat Layla Moran by 63.5% to 36.5%. This was largely expected and broadly in line with the YouGov members’ poll last January. Davey has been acting leader since the GE2019 defeat in her constituency of Jo Swinson and today’s outcome puts him in a much better position to deal with Keir Starmer on an approach to the next election…
Could they soon be level? Even though the polls continue to have Biden with a significant lead over Trump punters remain increasingly convinced that this is a much tighter race than the data might appear. The latest prices on the Betfair Exchange have Trump moving up to a 45.5% chance and there is still some way to go before the GOP convention closes late on Thursday night US time. Again the thinking of the Trump backers is dominated by their…
Hi all, We’re moving PB over to a shiny, new server, with lots of additional chrome and bells and whistles and added security and all that lark. It’s highly likely there will be downtime in the next 12 hours. I’ll try and keep it to a minimum, but no promises. Thanks Robert
The betting on Trump is completely out of line with all the indicators Having come out of the Democratic presidential and VP markets with a reasonable profit my attention is now focussed on the main WH2020 winner market and what I consider to be very tempting odds betting that a Trump victory won’t happen. I prefer to lay Trump rather than bet on Biden because it gives me more options. Biden’s age increases the possibility that something might happen and…
A crucial test for Johnson, Starmer, and the new LD leader One of the consequences of the the pandemic is that this year’s May local elections had to be postponed and also there have been no council by elections. Clearly having voting taking place while coronavirus is having such an impact would not be a good idea but democratic institutions have to carry on and renew themselves. So assuming there is no further postponement then the country looks set for…