As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election.
For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – the rust belt states that effectively gave him victory at WH2016.
So currently the odds on available on the parties winning are:
- National – Democrats 55% Republican 45.5%
- Pennsylvania – Democrats 58% Republican 43%
- Wisconsin – Democrats 63%% Republican 38%
- Michigan – Democrats 71% Republican 30%
Quite why this should be the case is hard to say but the state markets have far less liquidity than the national ones.
You can get even better odds if you are ready to take the slight extra risk of betting on Biden himself nationally rather than the winning party market.