Sunak now edges ahead of Johnson as preferred PM
The Chancellor now the “oven ready” alternative? Newbie pollster Redfield & Wilson has an interesting question seeking to measure Johnson against Sunak as preferred PM. The trend is shown in the Wikipedia table above and as can be seen Rishi is now outpointing Boris. This could be politically significant now the Tories have slipped behind LAB for the first time in a voting intention poll. Nothing will make Tory MPs nervous than the possible threat of losing their seats. That…
For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind
It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago. Labour 42% (+3%) Conservative 39% (-3%) Starmer takes 4% lead over Johnson as Best PM with Johnson 32% -3 Starmer 36% +3. Other figures are bad for the blue team…
The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005
What were you doing in 2005? At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters). Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66. In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed. Last year Boris Johnson…
2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1
Tory MPs often act, but rarely quickly Boris is gone. Not in body, obviously. The frequently dishevelled occupant of Number 10 remains in post and will in all likelihood be there for some time to come yet. No, it’s the spirit which has run dry: that bundle of energy and character which enabled him to become a first-name-only politician in the first place. If there was one iconic image of the man before he became PM, it was him dangling…
Rishi Sunak has highest satisfaction ratings for a Chancellor since Healey in 1978
At some stage, surely, things will change for the man now favourite for next PM Rishi Sunak remains popular with the British public according to the September Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The poll, conducted before the latest announcement of the Job Support Scheme on Thursday, reveals that two-thirds (64%) say they are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Chancellor, up from 45% in March – one in five (21%) are dissatisfied. This is the best score…
A Personal View of Sunak’s plans from a Lake District Pub
Let me be blunt. Sunak’s package does not help the hospitality sector, certainly not its small businesses. Perhaps he never intended to. Perhaps he has taken the view that the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, VAT cut (of no use to those on the fixed rate scheme) and other help was enough. Or that there is not enough money left. Or that it does not matter – being unskilled, low value and unnecessary in a post-Covid world. If this…
Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage
On this week’s Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls, Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator and Ben Walker, Data Journalist at the New Statesman and founder of the Britain Elects website. The team discuss the fallout from new COVID restrictions announced by the government this week – and what the public think of them as well as reaction to Keir Starmer’s first conference speech as Labour leader and how he polls versus Prime…