Just three weeks and five days to go and overnight we have had the Vice Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike pence. I didn’t stay up to watch it but by all reports the biggest moment came when a fly landed on Pence’s head and seem to stay there for minutes.
From the clips I’ve seen it looked a pretty even discussion and it is hard to see how this is going to change the trajectory of the race.
My own thinking at the moment is ultimately this will all be about turnout and which side’s supporters are most motivated to participate. Four years ago, of course, Hillary Clinton lost because previous Democratic voters because were less enthused about her and didn’t turn up in the numbers that they should have done in some of the key swing States.
Donald Trump is a very controversial incumbent and much of the campaign focus has been on trying to undermine confidence among those who voted for him four years ago. If this doesn’t produce switchers it could lead to people nor bothering to participate.
Certainly Trump’s approach to catching COVID19 and his actions since have done little to reassure voters that he’s taking the pandemic seriously. What we don’t know yet is whether there will be a second presidential debate which is due to take place next week.
I am currently comfortable with my betting positions but I’m not investing anymore beyond my spread bets on Biden and my longshot on on the Republicans losing Texas.