It might seem odd that even before the 2020 election day that people would be betting on the 2024 race but it does give a chance to spot some value.
Ladbrokes have a market up on who will win the 2024 Presidential election and on the Dem saide I’m quite taken with the 66/1 on Pete Buttigieg and 50/1 on Tom Cotton on the GOP side.
If Biden loses next month his age alone must surely rule him out for 2024 and even if he wins next month I can see him serving for only one term, defeating Trump would be a great thing on his CV, particularly in a landslide.
I like Pete Buttigieg a lot, he’s a very good media performer, as the video atop this thread attests to. He’s very young for politics, he’ll be 42 in 2024, and I suspect he’s here to stay. I suspect had he won the primaries this year, he’d be leading Trump by even more than Biden currently does. I think this is a rare rick by Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes, considering Buttigieg is longer odds than Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson and Meghan Markle, who are currently 25/1 and 50/1 (yes, twenty-five to one and fifty to one.)
On the GOP side my logic for backing Tom Cotton is the GOP will require a new candidate in 2024, even if Trump wins next month and with the support of a pliant Supreme Court, Trump is unlikely to stand for a third term. The bar to pass a constitutional amendment is pretty high, even for a non polarising President.
(If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future.)
Whilst it is easy to say Trump is the cause of the mess the GOP and America finds itself in, the truth is he’s a symptom. Compare and contrast the condemnation President George W. Bush and the rest of the GOP gave Trent Lott when Lott wished the segregationist had won the 1948 Presidential election to the lack of condemnation from Trump and the GOP when Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton said slavery was a ‘necessary evil’. Cotton seems determined to be appeal to Trump’s base when Trump is out of politics because Trumpism will still need a candidate.
So in my view these two tips represent good value and have potential to realise a profit well before the 5th of November 2024.