Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this
Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on the economic questions. But I suspect given that Trump does really badly in other supplementary questions, and those other occasions mentioned above there was no global pandemic, and that appears to be what is damaging Trump, as other pollsters have found as seen below.
I suspect like one of those B movie titles, if it is a case of ‘Economics versus The Plague’ then I suspect the voters will choose the candidate best placed to deal with Covid-19, but whilst Trump continues to lead on the economic questions, then I won’t be ruling out him winning next month, something bettors should remember. I’ll try and keep a track of this polling between now and election day.
But I expect Biden will win, because the full quote from James Carville for helping Bill Clinton to win was ‘1. Change vs. more of the same. 2. The economy, stupid. 3. Don’t forget health care.’
Focussing on all three should ensure a Biden victory, I don’t think anyone on team Biden won’t forget health care during the pandemic.