Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum.
Key points from the poll:
- Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No.
- Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say they are satisfied with the job she’s doing as First Minister, while 24% are dissatisfied – giving a ‘net’ satisfaction rating of 49%.
- Almost two thirds (64%) of Scots say that the UK Government should allow another independence referendum to be held within the next five years if the SNP wins a majority of seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – while a third (34%) say that the UK Government should not allow this.
- Three quarters (76%) of Scots are dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as Prime Minister, the lowest ratings Ipsos MORI has ever recorded for him in Scotland. 19% are satisfied with him while 5% don’t know.
- Keir Starmer is the only party leader other than Nicola Sturgeon to receive a positive net satisfaction rating from the Scottish public (16%). 44% are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as UK Labour Party leader and 27% are dissatisfied, while 29% don’t know.
Ipsos MORI has a good record in Scotland and, indeed, ahead of GE2015 was the first pollster find the extraordinary shift to the SNP which saw it take 56 out of the 59 seats at the May 2015 general election.
If the SNP do well at the next Scottish Parliament election it is going to be much harder for Westminster to resist the call.