Is this good for Trump or Biden?
Thanks to Michael McDonald who is collating all the published data on early voting and producing regular updates on his website which has enabled me to produce the chart above.
Each state operates this differently so what’s available on the public record is not constant but we do have have from many states figures on the number of votes that have actually been cast by mail and at polling stations. We also have the total of mail ballots that have been requested.
Comparing that with what happened nationally 4 years ago and we can see how much early voting activity has already taken place in the November 3rd election
Some pollsters have been issuing their polls Biden-Trump splits for those who have already voted and currently Obama’a vice president is leading that about 70% of the votes. From the US media coverage those who are ready to spend hours in long queues making sure they get their vote seem to be inclined to the Democratic side rather than the Republican one.
In some Republican run states there have been efforts to curtail early voting and there have been legal backup battles going on in Texas, the second biggest state of all with 38 electoral College votes.
My impression formed from the media coverage in the US of the people waiting in line in many case for hours in order to cast their ballots is that Biden benefiting more than Trump.