One of the features of the current White House race is how the polling has got better and better for Joe Biden as time has gone on but the impact on the UK betting markets particularly Betfair, has not reflected this.
Ladbrokes reported yesterday that two-thirds of all bets that taken on the election had been the Trump – my guess being that the smaller ones are going for the Republican but the bigger bets are for the Democrat.
This has been said many times but it remains even more true that many are still looking at this election through the lens of 2016. The widespread assumption is that something will happen and that Trump will actually make it after all.
Things are totally different from 4 years ago in particular the Democrats have a candidate who arouses nothing like the hostility that Hillary Clinton faced, Also America has now experienced 4 years of a Trump Presidency and has appeared to have made up it’s mind about the incumbent and that is not positive for him.
The issue that is particularly critical is the threat to the the Affordable Care act commonly known as Obamacare. This provides basic Healthcare provision for 25 million Americans but also provides safeguards for the 100 million or more who have pre-existing conditions. A coming Supreme Court decision raises questions about the future.
Two years ago at the midterms it was the fear then of the Trump administration undermining Obamacare that secured the huge move to the Democrats in House of Representatives. The turnout in those elections was the highest for any midterms since before the First World War.
Given the current scale of early voting that is at record levels it would appear that this coming election is going to see huge turnout levels as well and the general view is that the more people who take part in the election the worst it gets for Mr Trump.
My bets are on Biden.