If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level.
But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing.
Quite what is driving this is hard to say but I think Paul Krishnamurty’s explanation in his piece for CityAM is along the right track. He writes:
Anecdotally, Trump supporters seem as confident as ever, either disbelieving the polls or optimistic that something will change in his favour. In stark contrast, Trump opponents seem terrified. They daren’t take anything for granted after 2016 and are jumpy about ‘events’, despite the remarkable consistency of their poll lead. That also reflects the fragmented, ‘post-truth’ media environment. Various research has illustrated how the two sides of America’s partisan divide are locked into opposing news cycles, receiving very different information and facts. Mainstream news arguably cuts through less than micro-targeted disinformation on Facebook. That equally applies to the global betting market, whose players are just as divided on the omnipresent ‘Trump question’. The message that the polls are fixed, or were more wrong than in reality last time, is widespread. Why would viewers disbelieve if not hearing that information contradicted?
I’m sticking with my Biden bets.