Above is the latest polling average for Florida from Nate Silver’s site where, as can be seen, Biden has been enjoying a small but significant lead. Yet when we look at the betting a different trend appears. This of the Betfair market from Betdata and Trump has been odds on favourite for quite some time.
On the face of it a bet on Biden at anything longer than evens is great value – yet that doesn’t seem to be happening. I have to admit that I’ve been reluctant to bet here and so far have skipped it.