Above is the market from Smarkets which, as can be seen has moved about a fair bit over the past year.
This is a huge event for British politics yet it has been totally overshadowed by COVID and the US election.
I think there is going to be a deal but I’m not tempted by the odds. These are the betting market rules so you know what you are risking your money on.
If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes. This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal. If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.