The above clip of Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, speaking to the Senate on the last day of the Trump presidency is a possible good pointer to a new market that Smarkets have up on what he specifically is going to do in the vote next week.

Currently the chances of McConnell voting for impeachment are rated by the markets as a 21% chance which I think might be a good bet. There’s no doubt about his view of Trump’s role events in Washington on January 6th when the Capitol was stormed and five people died.

McConnell did vote with all but five of the GOP Senators on a move to stop the proceedings on the grounds that it was unconstitutional to impeach a former President. Next week’s votes will be different

I’ve looked at the above clip time and time again and I find it hard to see how he could vote in favour of no action being taken.

These are the market rules:

This market relates to whether Senator Mitch McConnell will vote to convict Donald Trump on any articles of impeachment in the Senate during Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, on or before 30 April 2021. If no such vote occurs by the end date of this market, this market will be settled for no. If McConnell abstains on all votes or does not vote, this market will be settled for no. Any Senate vote that does not result in votes being recorded will have no bearing on the outcome of this market. If Mitch McConnell dies before the end date of this market, this market will be void.

For GOP this is very tricky because they do not want to act in a way that could be portrayed as being supportive of those who attacked the Capitol building.