Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be.
At the moment just about the total focus of the new administration has been on filling the key cabinet places and of course dealing with the COVID pandemic. One thing we do know however is that the new President will be attending the meeting of the G7 which is scheduled to be held in Cornwall in June.
So assuming he goes directly there then the UK is in the right position to be favourite. But much can happen in the meantime and it is surely possible that Biden, whose family originally came from Ireland, might want to stop in Dublin before he arrives in the UK. It could be, of course, that there is another international destination on the list featured in the Smarkets market that he will go to.
We do know from past statements how strongly Biden views the importance of the Good Friday Agreement and a symbolic stop in the Ireland might be seen to his team as good politics.
I think the best bet here at current odds is to lay the UK.