One of the best political bets at the moment
To me one of the best political bets about at the moment is that from Smarkets on Biden’s approval rating based on the fivethirtyeight average will be on April 29th – 100 days after he became President. The current odds of it being in the 50-54.9% range are about evens.
What’s striking about the chart above is how little movement there has been in the first 36 days since the Inauguration. Biden has made handling the devastating COVID pandemic in the US his number one priority and has introduced measure after measure to try to bring this under control. It will be recalled how his predecessor had broadly washed his hands with tackling COVID for his final few months.
It is hard to see what could undermine Biden in the next 63 days though, of course, the novelty element of him not being Trump declines every day.
One of the issues with political betting is that quite often there are very few markets that will come to an end within a reasonable timescale. I’m generally reluctant to tie up cash in long-term bets but this one has less than two months to go.