When the bookies start opening markets on your survival then you know that a political leader is in trouble. Ladbrokes now make it 7/4 that she will be out this year following the latest revelations over the Salmond affair.
These odds have been getting tighter over the past week as one revelation has followed another.
The timing for the First Minister could not be worse given we are just two month away from the Scottish parliament elections where Nicola will be keen to hang on to her majority. Already the opposition parties at Holyrood are doing their best to make it difficult for her. This is all set against the backcloth over her desire to have another IndyRef which she hopes would see Scotland leave the UK.
The odds on the SNP losing control are tightening.
Things have changed sharply. and events could move rapidly. Exactly a month ago a YouGov Scottish poll had her with a net favourability rating of +21% with Salmond on minus 60%. Asking the same questions today would surely produce a sharply different result.