Last night it was announced Laurence Fox was going to stand in the election for Mayor of London, he’s got until the end of the month to get his nomination papers submitted, so he’s not announced this too late.
I just have the feeling that London is absolutely the worst place in the country for a party led by Laurence Fox to do well with his messaging. I suspect the electorate of London will make Fox feel like he’s a fox on the property of Jolyon Maugham.
Fox’s party has conducted some polling by BPC registered Savanta ComRes which does give him a base to build support from.
The survey, conducted by Savanta ComRes among 1,000 people in London in late February for the Reclaim Party, found that 25 per cent of Londoners wanted lockdown lifted by the end of this month. Some 58 per cent wanted it gone by the end of May. Among Londoners aged 18-34, the latter figure rises to 63 per cent.
The same poll also showed why Fox’s message will struggle to resonate with the electorate of London.
One in four voters in the capital thought Mr Khan was “too woke” – although 27 per cent found him “not woke enough”.
A similar proportion – 25 per cent – were against a review ordered by Mr Khan into whether statues should be removed because of links to slavery or colonialism, against 39 per cent in favour.
My suspicion is that Fox may do well somewhere more Brexity, somewhere like Hartlepool, where they have no problems in electing fun/ludicrous popinjays figures. After all the monkey hangers repeatedly elected H’Angus the Monkey, a football mascot, to be their mayor back, first back in 2002.
Thusly I’m betting that Fox will do badly in an area where more people think Sadiq Khan isn’t woke enough than think he is too woke. His appalling grasp of history not only does it appal historians like myself but in the past has caused Fox trouble, his Telegraph piece seems to be rooted in a belief in a certain view of British history that may not be consistent with the actualité.
As I noted in the title laying Brian Rose in this race has been immensely profitable for many PBers and I’m struggling to see how laying Fox will be unprofitable.
By the time of publication of this piece I hope Betfair will have added Laurence Fox to the London Mayoral betting market. We should also see some decent head to head bets such as Fox v. Rose and maybe Fox v. Shaun Bailey, the useless Tory candidate.