Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier

Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier

It is now nearly a week since we got YouGov’s shock 13% CON lead poll which was pretty much out of kilter with other polls before it and we have not had another voting survey to indicate whether this pointed to a new trend or was simply an outlier.

Normally in the weekends after budgets we get a number of polls but, alas, that has not happened and the YouGov 13% lead which was published last Thursday continues to be the latest survey there is.

The nature of polling inevitably means we are going to get outliers from time to time but you can only decide retrospectively whether that judgement can be made.

Hopefully we’ll see another voting poll today or tomorrow and it would be good to have another YouGov.

Mike Smithson


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