A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority
A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour
Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it.
My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from the Conservatives at the next election and the Conservatives need to lose around 55-60 net seats at the next election for Labour to take power at the next election as part of a rainbow alliance.
In the last fifty one years five Leaders of the Oppositon have gone on to become Prime Minister directly, that statistic is slightly skewed by the fact that every Leader of the Opposition in the 1970s went on to become PM so it a very difficult task for him.
What should really trouble Starmer and his supporters isn’t just the fall in his ratings which generally is a feature of being Leader of the Opposition is the fact a year in to the job according to the recent Redfield & Wilton poll he is seen less of the embodiment of telling the truth than Boris Johnson.
Let that sink in, Starmer trails on to tell the truth metric to the twice sacked for lying, serial adulterer, Boris Johnson man who said no Prime Minister could put a border down the Irish Sea then did exactly that.
Theoretically being really far behind in seats might give you an opportunity for some easy gains, but Kinnock (1987) and Hague (2001) show that is a very simplistic viewpoint. As I said a few weeks ago, I told Starmer to pull tha’ bloody finger out.