The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone.
The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead .
The CWU was a strong supporter of Jeremy Corbyn and was opposed to Starmer in last year’s leadership contest.
In another finding the poll had 57%, backing the re-nationalising Royal Mail, with 29% wanting to keep it in private hands, as it has been since 2014.
We know that the overall sample was of 502 but what I have not seen yet is how many of those contacted actually had a view.
Survation has a mixed record with its constituency polling and in by-elections things can be very dynamic.
Inevitably this led to a lot of activity on the betting exchanges and this is from Smarkets.
At 25% I think LAB is now value.