Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens.
Salmond had totally outshone the lacklustre SLAB leader, Iain Gray, in the big BBC Scotland debate at the end of March yet LAB remained ahead in thre voting polls until the final week.
This year the new Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, was easily the dominant force in the BBC debate and his latest Ipsos ratings above look very promising indeed. What is clear is that Sarwar completely overshadows Scottish CON leader Ross and he has a net 49% margin over him in the Ipsos polling.
Yet in the voting polls SLAB is in third place behind the Scottish Tories. In the second place betting the Tories are currently ranked at 63% to beat LAB which is on 38%. To my mind the latter looks a great bet.
Sarawar has what it takes, I’d suggest, to attract pro-union votes from the Tories and other parties in key contests.
I can’t decide yet whether to bet on the SNP failing to win a majority.