The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place
Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens.
Salmond had totally outshone the lacklustre SLAB leader, Iain Gray, in the big BBC Scotland debate at the end of March yet LAB remained ahead in thre voting polls until the final week.
This year the new Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, was easily the dominant force in the BBC debate and his latest Ipsos ratings above look very promising indeed. What is clear is that Sarwar completely overshadows Scottish CON leader Ross and he has a net 49% margin over him in the Ipsos polling.
Yet in the voting polls SLAB is in third place behind the Scottish Tories. In the second place betting the Tories are currently ranked at 63% to beat LAB which is on 38%. To my mind the latter looks a great bet.
Sarawar has what it takes, I’d suggest, to attract pro-union votes from the Tories and other parties in key contests.
I can’t decide yet whether to bet on the SNP failing to win a majority.
UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.