With maybe 60% of people voting in this way the timing could be crucial
Because of the ongoing impact of the pandemic it is estimated by the Tory elections’ expert, Lord Hayward, that the total of postal votes from the May 6th elections could touch be in the region of 50-60% of all the votes that are cast. The big element here is that once someone has popped their ballot into the post then there is nothing they can do to should consequentially they think they’ve made a mistake.
So what is happening in the news at the time of the postal votes going going out could be important.
The timing of postal votes going out is different in each local authority area but the ballot packs should soon be landing on the doormat and most postal voters return them within a few days. A question for the Tories is whether the Greensill/Cameron affair will have an impact.
My sense of Greensill-Cameron is that at the moment the perception is that this is all about a previous regime and that could limit the electoral damage. But things could change as the story develops and other parts of the media follow the Sky News approach in the Tweet above. This is certainly about more than Cameron.
The Mirror has sought to widen it to Boris and the Arcuri relationship but that for the time being does not seem to have legs although it could.
If there is an impact on Tory voters is possibly it will likely be about a slightly lower turnout.
I’ve taken the precautionary measure of closing down my bet on Tories getting 38% or more of the votes in the locals.
So what is going on now