Ladbrokes have a fascinating market on the Senedd seat of Cardiff West, looking at the odds above it seems a very easy Labour hold, you’d expect Mark Drakeford, the incumbent First Minister, to hold this seat thanks the excellent rollout of the vaccine he has overseen in Wales which has been seen in the polling.
However the most recent poll in Wales by YouGov sees Drakeford losing his seat, which I think that might be more to do with the legacy Drakeford inherited from his party. That is very similar to what happened to Winston Churchill in 1945 where the country thanked him and his party for their successful stewardship of the World War II by kicking them out of office due to the previous mistakes of the administration, for Drakeford it might be worse as he loses his constituency as well.
I think there’s a bit of value on Rhys ab Owen of Plaid Cymru in this seat, I’m also backing Sean Driscoll of the Tories in this seat, at 25/1 there’s an abundance of value in backing him.
Looking at the Welsh polling it appears the Tories are hoovering most of the 2016 UKIP vote, coupled with things like a strong Green party performance taking votes from Labour and potentially Plaid Cymru, differential turnout in these Covid-19 times may also benefit the Tories. as well as a Tory vaccine boost, then it is possible for this seat to become a messy three way fight. On that basis I make the 25/1 on the Tories stupendous value, if you’re lucky like me, Ladbrokes may even boost the odds to 28/1.