Remember when its final GE2017 poll was dismissed as an outler
Lots of talk by poll-watchers over the last 18 hours about the Survation survey which is showing a radically different picture of public opinion in the country compared with others particularly YouGov. To recall the former has the CON lead down to just 1% while the latter has it at 11%.
This all reminds me of what happened with the polls when TMay was seeking to get a bigger majority at GE2017. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table above this was something of a triumph for Survation which had a final poll totally out of line from everybody else. Many remember the remarkable attack by Andrew Neil on the firm’s Damien Lyon Lowe live on BBC2’s Daily Politics.
As it turned out the Survation final poll was the only published survey that gave a foretaste of what was a sensational and unexpected general election outcome.
The difference between Survation and the other pollsters was not the base data but its turnout model that was not discounting LAB voters in the way that other firms were.