So far we haven’t got a date for the Batley by-election but everything is getting ready for the starting gun to be fired.
After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance.
What could make a difference here is the choice of the Labour candidate, Kim Leadbeater, who is the sister of the former MP, Jo Cox, who was murdered a few days before the 2014 referendum. That linkage, which electors no doubt will be repeatedly reminded of, could make a difference. My sense is that there is a lot of goodwill towards her which should just help in getting the LAB vote out.
We have not yet seen a constituency poll but I’m sure one will come when the date is announced.
This is what happened at GE2019
The Heavy Woollen Independents were effectively UKIP.