Or will the memory of TMay’s GE2017 decision have a cautionary effect?
In normal circumstances for this Parliament to run its full course means the next general election at the latest should take place in May 2024 – but could Johnson be tempted to go early?
Even if he doesn’t get round to repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act the fact that he has a big majority and the obvious desire of Starmer to have an election as early as possible could mean that 2023 becomes a possibility.
A big factor that’s likely to impact on Johnson’s is the coming boundary review which it is suggested could give the Tories about ten extra seats. The timetable for the review means that the new boundaries come into effect by Q3 2024 at latest.
A lot depends on how the Tories perceive their chances and things can change rapidly. We all remember what happened to TMay in April 2017 when she had poll leads of up 25% just before she went for the June general election. When we got to election day most of that had melted away and the eventual national Tory vote lead was just 2.4%. TMay’s party lost its overall majority.
My view is that if the polls are looking good after the May 2023 locals then Johnson could give it a go.