On July 1st LAB go into their second difficult northern by-election defence at Batley & Spen and following the loss of Hartlepool on May 6th the Tories are strong favourites to take the seat.
Generally, government parties have trouble with by-elections like this where the main opposition party is defending a seat held at the previous general election. Until LAB lost Copeland in 2017 this was almost something that just about never happened. But it says something about current UK politics that this is not just seen as a possible outcome in Batley but a likely one
The Tories have their tails up and clearly expectations are running high.
The one thing that just might take the wind out of the Tory sails is if a week on Thursday Chesham and Amersham does not go to expectations.
Unlike Hartlepool we have no polling from the Yorkshire seat where one complication is that George Galloway is one the candidate list. Could he pull off a surprise?