Although you might not have noticed it if you follow the national media there is a by-election on Thursday which has the potential to cause shockwaves. Chesham and Amersham is the first such contest since Brecon in 2019 where the LDs think they are in with a shout and have been throwing everything at the campaign. Leader Ed Davey has been there almost every day and hundreds of activists from all over the country have been working on the campaign.
One change in the LD approach is seen on the poster above. The former “winning here” strapline at the bottom has been replaced by “Demand Better” which is much more of a direct message to the voter.
This is a Remain seat on the outskirts of London on the rube map which the Tories held at GE2019 with 55.4% of the vote and the LDs in second place on 26.3% – almost double the share from GE2017. The demographics are fairly similar to the seats the party holds in SW London.
The LAB leader, Keir Starmer has all but conceded that his party can’t win which will surely encourage tactical voting. My guess is that his party will lose its deposit and we could get back to a situation like at the December 2016 Richmond Park by-election where the party got fewer votes than the total of LAB members in the constituency
I’m on at about 19/1 which I believe is great value and has now tightened. A less risky bet that should more than cover my stakes if it is a CON hold is that the LD vote share will be greater than 40% which you can get at about 5/2 on the Smarkets exchange. There is a well-defined pattern in by-election fights like this for top two to take most of the votes.