According to City AM it has seen internal LD polling from Chesham and Amersham suggesting that they are on 41% against the Tory 45% for Thursday’s by-election. We have seen this form of revelation before by the party in Richmond Park and the Brecon by-elections where the numbers they said their internal surveys had them on was in fact lower than that which they achieved in the elections.
The purpose is very clear – to attract tactical voters from Labour and the Greens which might be enough to get them over the line. In Richmond the first such internal survey had them 43.3% compared with the 49.7% in the actual election.
At the end of May the Indy had a similar report of internal polling that had them then on 35.1%.
Unlike the Hartlepool by-election where there were two external polls we have seen nothing in this battle.
Currently the LDs are on 13.5/1 with Betfair to win – a bet that looks very attractive.