In that other by-election that takes place a fortnight tomorrow, the Tory position remains strong with the party at a 75% chance in the betting. That’s not as good as the current Chesham and Amersham betting but still pretty clear.
Whether this is a correct indicator of the final outcome is hard to say but we’ll know on Friday morning how good the betting was at predicting this week’s by-election.
The hard thing about B&S is that there has been no constituency polling unlike Hartlepool but it is important to state that it is highly unusual for a governing party to be winning seats from the main opposition party at by-elections.
The apparent strength of the LD challenge in tomorrow’s contest as seen through their reported party survey overnight is very much the norm and has seen their betting chances edge up from a 5% one to nearer 10%
I’ve not had a B&S bet yet and am waiting to see how things look after C&A where the LD’s claim to be just 4% behind has pushed the Tories back.