Part of the Tory programme at GE2010 was the “triple lock” for pensioners. Passed into legislation in 2011 this guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.

What nobody envisaged at that time was that a totally artificial drop year on year in average earnings such as that created by the pandemic would point to, perhaps, an 8% increase in average earnings which according to this formula should be used to fix the next increase. In recent interviews Sunak has been careful not to state that this will be applied.

This is not just a one-off issue. If the 8% uplift came in for the next annual increase then it would stay in the system indefinitely because the enhanced rate would be the baseline for the following year’s calculation.

For Sunak and the Tories this creates a massive political problem. We all know the party relies disproportionately on the pensioners’ vote at election times and being seen not to apply the formula could be portrayed in a way that is highly damaging.

This, of course, comes after a period of huge extra government expenditure simply to deal with the pandemic. Things like the furlough scheme have not come cheap and there is a massive hole in the public finances.

My guess is the Sunak will be over-ruled by the PM.

Mike Smithson