The Smarkets exchange where Shadsy is now running the political markets, has just put up a new bet – when will LAB next get a poll lead? The rules are dead simple:
This market will be settled as a winner for the relevant year if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Labour party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG. The qualifying date of any poll will be determined by the last day of fieldwork.
At current odds, I’ve just got 3.7 on 2021 or 27% chance, which looks like a value bet. These are my reasons
- FIRST There’s always the chance of an outlier
- SECOND In September there will be real party conferences again and Starmer will be able to make his first speech to his party since being elected in April last year. This will get a lot of media attention and in the past we have seen parties getting conference polling boosts
- THIRDLY The Tory vaccine bounce is now fading away and the party has far fewer double digit leads
- FOURTHLY BoJo’s personal ratings are nothing like strong as they were
All bets are about value and my reckoning is that LAB has a greater than 27% chance of seeing this happen.