If it goes according to Survation
If it goes according to YouGov
For the projections, I have used Martin Baxter’s longstanding seat calculator. As can be seen the polling and the seat projections are in separate universes and there is no way you can rationalise it except that Survation’s fieldwork was four days later a period that was pretty bad for BoJo.
The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it had now that other neighbours in Europe have almost caught up or surpassed the UK.
The parliamentary recess now starts and maybe there will be a little less politics until the start of September.