I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election.
This market from Ladbrokes is much more easier for me, will Starmer be Labour Leader at the next election and my inclination is to back Yes. Given how hard it is force out a Labour Leader, remember 172 Labour MPs expressed no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn with just 40 MPs disagreeing Corbyn still remained Labour Leader for nearly four more years and two more general elections. In my lifetime and long before that the only Labour Leader forced out by the party was the general election winning behemoth Tony Blair.
I suspect the only way Starmer isn’t Labour Leader at the next election, other than actuarial reasons, is if he stands down and unless he makes a habit of losing more seats in by elections then that is unlikely given how rare they are.
So if you fancy tying up your money for potentially the better part of three years this might be the market for you. I’d be backing the 8/13 option if I wanted to tie up my money for so long, I don’t think the 5/4 on No represents value, there should be better proxy bets on Starmer standing down the closer we approach the general election.