Could Tory punters be over-estimating their leader
One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs.
This was in spite of the fact that the seat had voted Remain and the electorate comprised a much higher than average proportion of graduates – both very good pointers for the LDs in a Westminster by-election.
Two weeks later at Batley the Tories maintained themselves as a 75% chance right until election day. Here there was some explanation in that a constituency poll had put the blue 6% ahead.
I just wonder whether punters over-estimating BoJo’s Tories is something that is happening at the moment and that is relevant in relation to the Johnson exit year betting.
One of the things we haven’t had for a couple of years are party conferences “in the flesh”. That’s going to change in later September for LAB and early October for CON. These will help us get a sense of the mood of the party at the grassroot level.
I think the 55% on him being there in 2024 is a lay.