As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%.
The Tory seats chosen for the poll all voted Remain at the referendum and have 25%+ graduates in their electorates. The latter is thought to be a big group that might have switched.
We saw, of course, what happened at Chesham and Amersham only a few weeks ago where there was a 25% CON to LD swing.
The poll is important because it does highlight the challenge facing Johnson and his team and suggests that retaining a majority next time might be challenging.
You could argue that the poll could be underestimating the LDs who have shown that they can produce a campaign effort in specific seats that other parties find difficult to match.
I just wonder how this polling would look if someone other than Johnson was Tory leader.