Labour has a much lower chance than 12% of winning a majority
At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party came out with 203 MPs and since then Hartlepool has been lost. So to win on this bet what is now Starmer’s party has to gain 124 seats.
That I would suggest is a huge ask and would be even if LAB was enjoying poll leads which of course it doesn’t have. This is one of those political bets that punters have got wrong. The main opposition party has a much lower chance than 12% of getting a majority.
As can be seen a CON majority and no overall majority are competing for the favourite slot.
It is important to note that the market rules are based on a 650 seat Commons so one of the three options has to get 326 to be a winner.
We have, of course, the boundary changes which come into effect during 2023 and all the analysis suggests that this does not help LAB.
I would lay LAB but at the moment this is locking up cash for too long
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