How Starmer could become PM
One of the things we sometimes ignore when a new poll comes out is how the party shares compare with the last general election and from that we can compute “swing”.
Thus last night’s Redfield poll had LAB 4% behind the Tories which according to my analysis is the “sweet spot” which, could lead to Johnson losing his effective majority even taking into account Sinn Fein’s reluctance to take their seats.
That margin on current boundaries would lead to a CON to LAB swing of 3.9% since GE2019 which if applied equally across the country would result in 41 Tory losses to LAB. See list of LAB targets here.
The Redfield poll also has a CON to LD swing of 1% which would lead on the same assumptions to four LD gains.
There have been no recent all Scotland polls but it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.
Taking all this into account then Johnson’s party would still be by a big margin be the biggest party but would not have an effective majority. A confidence vote would likely produce a defeat for the government hence the possibility of Starmer being invited to the palace.
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