Foreign affairs and laying Michael Gove
Inevitably there is now a market up on the next Foreign Secretary and this market from Smarkets is worth a look (even if there’s next to no liquidity in it.)
I do not expect Dominic Raab to be an ex Foreign Secretary shortly because if there’s one thing Boris Johnson is tolerant of it is incompetent ministers, in other eras perpetual incompetence and bullying would have seen the likes of Gavin Williamson and Priti Patel sacked long ago so Raab will be unfortunate to be sacked for incompetence and general unimpressiveness.
As has been pointed out the list of things Dominic Raab has failed to see coming includes ‘1. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan; 2. The importance of the Good Friday Agreement and its fragility post Brexit; 3. The importance of the UK’s proximity to Calais re imports/exports of goods‘, things he was specifically warned about. So it feels like he will be eventually be reshuffled from the Foreign Office.
When Raab eventually goes I’d rule out the favourite Michael Gove on the grounds of his well documented fear of flying, I’d also rule out Rishi Sunak on the basis that Boris Johnson will want him to front the unpopular fiscal decisions coming up, especially on the triple lock and the ending of the universal credit uplift. What better way to destroy the chances of Sunak replacing Johnson than making him unpopular?
I’d also advocate laying/not backing Lisa Nandy or any other non Conservative, we’re probably two if not three years away from the next general election and I’d expect a cabinet reshuffle before that election and I think Raab will be moved elsewhere, this morning’s Sunday Times makes clear Raab’s cabinet colleagues have turned against him and are leaking thusly. Currently this is a market to lay rather than to back.